NINE-MONTH MARKETSHARE

Throughout Sir Lucian Grainge’s history-making first decade at the helm of UMG, the hardest-working knight in showbiz has exhibited impeccable timing, and that remains the case at this pivotal moment in the company’s history. As trading begins on the newly stand-alone Universal, the empire Grainge built is firing on all cylinders—he wouldn’t have it any other way.

At the end of Q3, Uni’s U.S. marketshare YTD—38.5% overall and 38.9% current—is near all-time highs in both metrics. John Janick’s IGA (10.3% overall, a whopping 11.7% current), which we crowned 2021 champ back in July, has maintained its 1.2% lead over #2 Atlantic since midyear. Rookie phenom Olivia Rodrigo has scored the #1 and #4 streaming songs YTD as well as the #2 album, while Moneybagg Yo, the late Juice WRLD, Billie Eilish, the erupting Machine Gun Kelly and living legend Eminem keep racking up the units. The hits just keep on coming as well for Monte Lipman’s Republic (8.3%), which has four of the Top 10 albums, led by Morgan Wallen at #1, a dozen Top 50 singles and a blockbuster new album from Drake. QC’s Lil Baby, via Ethiopia Habtemariam’s Motown, is a leader for Jeff Vaughn and Michelle Jubelirer’s CMG (6.8%) as his best-selling album of 2020 stays in the Top 10, while his joint LP with Lil Durk is #30. The Tower also recently saw a strong bow from Halsey, and new artist Toosii is showing promise.

These three label groups collectively own just over a quarter of the market, while Def Jam (2.3)—led by Justin Bieber’s #4 album, given a recent lift by Kanye West and soon to be headed by Tunji Balogun—Mike Dungan and Cindy Mabe’s UMG Nashville (2.1), the Jesús López-led UMLE (1.3) and Bruce Resnikoff’s UMe (.6) account for another 6.3%. Between its owned and distributed labels, Uni has 25 of the Top 50 streaming songs YTD and a stunning 29 of the Top 50 albums. In the macro, those stats add up to utter domination.

At Rob Stringer’s Sony Music (25.8% overall, 23.6% current), Ron Perry’s sizzling Columbia has picked up half a percentage point to 6.9% overall since midyear, while notching six Top 50 albums and eight Top 50 singles. Big Red highlights include breakthrough artist The Kid LAROI, whose debut LP is #7, setting the pace for Sony as a whole and yielding two Top 50 tracks; rock-steady Polo G, who’s got the #5 single, along with a pair of Top 50 albums; and the inimitable Lil Nas X, who has a Top 10 streaming song as his debut LP drops. Peter Edge’s RCA has climbed to 5% behind newly minted superstar Doja Cat, who has the #15 album and two of the label’s three Top 20 tracks, along with cutting-edge artist SZA. Sylvia Rhone’s Epic (2.5%), with Top 50 LPs from DJ Khaled and Travis Scott; Randy Goodman’s Sony Music Nashville (2.1%), with the #8 and #33 LPs from Luke Combs; and catalog label Legacy, with 2.1% in that sector, have also helped Stringer’s company pick up .2% in the last three months. Landing Todd Moscowitz’s Alamo should give Sony a lift down the line, although the label’s front-loaded 2021 release schedule primarily benefits its former berth at IGA in the short term.

The highest-scoring act on Steve Cooper’s WMG (16.1% overall, 14.1% current) is Warner superstar Dua Lipa, whose immense popularity has brought her the #5 album and #2 single YTD—which must be why Aaron Bay-Schuck and Tom Corson were spotted in form-fitting spandex outfits during a recent Zoom meeting. Top 50 singles from Saweetie, CJ and Warner Nashville’s Gabby Barrett also contributed to the Bunny’s 6.3% overall share, cementing its status as the #5 label. Warner’s growth has intensified the in-house competition with Atlantic, which has just five Top 50 albums, compared to IGA’s 13 and Republic’s 10 (soon to be 11, thanks to Drizzy).

In all, Sir Lucian’s company couldn’t have been better positioned for that IPO.